BCD Research Information

Uses fundamentals to identify turns in the business cycle, yields and equities. On the surface BCD research appears to be conventional economic measures of liquidity and consumer spending; however, it's the practical application of differential calculus. For each of the 45 headings or numerators, whether it be Hourly Earnings or Liquidity: Monetary Base, there's a corresponding denominator. The resulting quotient - by dividing the denominator into the numerator - is what gives leading perspective and accuracy to major peak and troughs for the equity markets, the business cycle and interest rates. The consumer spending and liquidity-driven databases are independent variables used to measure the dependent variable (S&P 500 Index). So there are no earnings, dividends, or P/E's used in the process. Yet, this data base has been able to pick out those periods when multiples decline faster than earnings rise, which occurs during an initial market decline. Likewise, equities bottom (i.e. P/E's rise) before the economy or earnings turn up, which again explains the important impact of multiples in determining the direction of the markets. In conclusion, BCD Research is focused where most analysts are not operating and the work is completely empirical in its application and explains at least half or more of the markets' movement up and down, which is needed in a secular bear market.